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Two production lines produce the same part. Line 1 produces 1,000 parts per week of which 100 are defective. Line 2 produces 2,000 parts per week of which 150 are defective. If you choose a part randomly from the stock what is the probability it is defective? If it is defective what is the probability it was produced by line 1?

Solution:

Step 1:

P(L_1) = \frac{1000}{3000}

P(L_2) = \frac{2000}{3000}

P(D | L_1) = \frac{100}{1000}

P(D | L_2) = \frac{150}{2000}

Step 2:

(1)   \begin{align*}P(D) & = P(D | L_1) \times P(L_1) + P(D | L_2) \times P(L_2) \\& = 0.1 \times \frac{1}{3} + 0.075 \times\frac{2}{3} \\& = 0.08 \\P(L_1 | D) &  = \frac{P(D | L_1) \times P(L_1)}{P(D)} \\& =  \frac{0.1 \times \frac{1}{3}}{0.53} \\& = 0.4\end{align*}

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